HUMANSCAPE                      VOL VI ISSUE                       I JANUARY 1999

Chronicle of disasters foretold

by Priya Florence Shah

1998 could be called the Year of the Undertaker. And the environment was its first victim. Man-made environmental disasters saw temperatures on Earth touch the highest ever recorded, and unprecedented death and destruction in the worst floods, landslides and droughts in decades. It's been boomtime for the doomsday prophets who have long predicted that our pattern of development will drive us straight into the grave was boomtime for doomsday prophets. All over the globe the elements have been wreaking havoc.

The disasters got off to an Olympian start. With the hottest temperatures on record ever. With the biggest ever floods in Bangladesh, which left over 1500 people dead and millions homeless. And with the worst flooding in 40 years along the Yangtze river in China, which left more than 3000 dead, 14 million homeless, and 21 million hectares of land under water. Closer home, the recent spate of floods in India was adjudged the worst this century. More than 400 perished in devastating landslides. Droughts left Orissa, Chattisgarh in MP and parts of Rajasthan parched. After the drought in Orissa, which left nine dead, came excessive rain and flash floods. 1998 could be called the year of the Undertaker. And the environment was its first victim.

Blighted harvest.

The United Nations noted recently that the number and scale of environmental emergencies throughout the world are increasing at an alarming rate. This year, India's cup of woes seems to have overflowed. By January 1998, 150 debt-ridden and distraught cotton farmers in the districts of Adilabad, Karimnagar and Warangal in the Telengana region of Andhra Pradesh had committed suicide by consuming pesticide that proved ineffective against Spodoptera litura (the American bollworm), the pest that destroyed 3.7 lakh hectares of crops. Nearly 80 farmers in Maharashtra, and at least 11 farmers in Karnataka took their own lives. By September, the toll had risen to 377.

Most of the farmers had replaced traditional crops with lucrative cash crops; little realising that raising them is a costly and precise science. It finally emerged that a combination of spurious seeds, spurious pesticides, borrowing from private moneylenders and, finally, the fact that the cotton farmers were not given remunerative prices had driven them to suicide. Experts and the government blamed changed cropping patterns and unsustainable farming practices for the tragedy.

But according to the Andhra Pradesh Rytu Sangam (APRS), the failure of the Government's Extension Department to provide timely advice to farmers worsened the problem. The fact that there have been no suicides in the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu, which runs an aggressive programme of educating its farmers on controlling pests with a delicate balance of natural predators and biologically safe pesticides, seems to bear this out.

In a recent paper, the Union agriculture ministry stated that "indiscriminate use of pesticides by farmers is destroying the balance in the agro-economic system and nullifying the system's built-in capacity to counter pest attack," and that "farmers have totally departed from the integrated pest management (IPM) package of practices." Outlining an action plan for state governments to check crop loss owing to pests, the agriculture ministry has focused on using the "natural biocontrol potential'' of the system to minimise pest attack. The paper points out that trained personnel should be deployed by state governments exclusively for IPM programmes, while involving non-government organisations, women's groups and panchayati raj institutions.

According to a Social Audit Report on important research and development programmes in agriculture, the practice of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) as an effective alternative to the use of chemical pesticides, reaches only one per cent of the total of 143 million hectares of cultivable land. The transfer of information, regarding numerous non-chemical methods developed for the control of crop pests and diseases, to the farmers and even to the extension officers has been rather slow.

Scorching summer

At the UN's Climate Change Summit in December, climate-watchers told delegates that 1997 was expected to be Earth's hottest year on record. 1998 proved them wrong. The mercury shot through the roof. The death toll from heat waves soared. In India temperatures were significantly higher than normal. New Delhi recorded a 50-year high of 46.5 in May. Temperatures reached a searing 49.8 degrees in Dholpur, Rajasthan, and stayed above 48 degrees for an entire fortnight, resulting in 50 deaths due to heat.

By the first few days of June, a severe heat wave had claimed 1782 victims all over the country. In Orissa, more than 950 people died in just over a week of intense heat. The capital, Bhubaneshwar, saw temperatures rise to a record 45.9 degrees, the hottest in 25 years. As if the sweltering heat wasn't convincing enough, new scientific data showed that August and the other eight months of 1998 were the hottest on record. July was the hottest month globally since official records began 118 years ago, prompting US Vice President Al Gore to famously declare, "You don't have to be a scientist to know it has been dangerously hot this summer."

Mountains of mud

In August, excessive rains triggered giant landslides in the Himalayas. On August 11, a deadly landslide along the Madhmeshwar Ganga in Ukhimath in the Garhwal region left about 107 people and 400 cattle dead. The army, which was joined by voluntary agencies, managed to exhume 16 bodies, and evacuated people from neighbouring villages threatened by landslides. Exactly a week later, a massive mud avalanche, triggered by a cloudburst, smothered two villages, Burwa Bhenti and Pondar, and left 37 dead. It destroyed the Jugasu suspension bridge, seriously disrupting relief operations. Debris blocked the river, creating a lake one kilometre long and 50 metres deep. Thousands of people had to be evacuated because of the threat of flooding. Only 42 of the 107 bodies were recovered. The rest remain buried under a mountain of mud. Thirty-eight perished in several other quakes.

Around midnight on August 17, the town of Malpa, in the Kumaon region, was buried under a heap of rocks two storeys high in a massive landslide at Pithoragarh. Around 210 people, including 60 Hindu pilgrims en route to the religious site of Kailash-Mansarovar in the state of Himachal Pradesh, were feared dead. The landslide cut off Malpa and areas beyond it from the rest of the world. Survivors were stranded without food, shelter or medicines. A few Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITPB) and army jawans in the area began the initial rescue work, which had to be abandoned after fresh landslides rocked the area.

The administration woke up to the crisis only three days after the tragedy, and launched a rescue operation codenamed Operation Whitehorse. The first rescuers landed at Malpa four days after the landslides, when the weather cleared for the first time. Ten survivors were rescued from the debris. Thirty-two bodies, including those of nine women, were found. Many bodies would never be recovered. Thousands of villagers were evacuated. Officials and relief agencies estimated the death toll at more than 300. The landslide obstructed the trade route between India and China for 20 days. The Minister of Environment and Forests, Suresh P Prabhu, recently ordered an inquiry into the mishap.

Watery grave

This year, the worst flooding in decades caused rivers in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bengal, Assam and parts of Madhya Pradesh to change course, breach their embankments, and inundate a vast area of northern India, equivalent to the size of Switzerland. The water levels of the Ghagra and the Rapti broke the records of the last 100 years. Drought-hit Orissa joined the ranks of its flood-ravaged neighbours after flash floods and excessive rain. In Gujarat, flash floods in the Tapti river were aggravated by the release of water from the Ukai dam, causing major damage to hundreds of industrial units. Over 80 per cent of Surat city was submerged under flood waters. Rats ominously appeared, bringing fears of plague.

Half of Assam and 30 per cent of land in UP was under water. Flood waters submerged all the major roads in Upper Assam, severing it from the rest of the country. Twenty-one of the 23 districts in the state were affected. Out of a total kharif area of 1.8 million hectares in Assam, 260,000 hectares were damaged by floods. As much as 80 per cent of the paddy crop in UP was lost to floods in the eastern parts of the state, and 13.5 lakh hectares of agricultural land were inundated. Thirty-nine districts in UP were affected.

Natural parks and sanctuaries were not spared either. Five hundred and forty-four animals, including 40 rhinos, perished either from drowning or poaching in the 18-feet-deep flood waters that covered the entire Kaziranga national park in Assam, damaged the high grounds erected to shelter the animals, and sabotaged anti-poaching operations. Animals which escaped to the hills in Karbi Anglong fell easy prey to poachers. The WWF arranged for financial assistance for rescue and recovery work, and rushed essential equipment to the park. Floods also threatened the Dudhwa National Park, the Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary, the Suhelwa Sanctuary, and the Sohagi Barwa Sanctuary in UP.

In the inundated areas, army and air-force personnel braved the mire of government inefficiency that often hampered relief operations. Malda town in Bengal was submerged under water up to five feet deep. Poor residents in Bihar's Katihar district took refuge on treetops. Boat pirates and thieves prospered. Drinking water sources were contaminated. And even before the waters began to ebb came another flood -- of epidemics. For the survivors, pestilence had many faces -- gastroenteritis, diarrhoea, Japanese encephalitis. Health care systems collapsed. There were no testing facilities, few medicines, and inadequate hospital beds. Quacks had a field day.

According to preliminary figures, over 2500 perished in this year's cataclysmic floods and landslides, and a wave of epidemics is expected to increase the toll further. More than 30 million were left homeless, 28,111 animals were killed, and over 6.4 million hectares of land -- of which 2.5 million were crop lands -- were submerged. Assam has demanded Rs 1,800 crore in flood relief, while UP has asked for more than Rs 800 crore. Including Bihar, Bengal and Gujarat, the economic toll could cost the national exchequer upto Rs 5,000 crore.

Unusual weather patterns, untimely rains and crop failures in Punjab, Haryana, western UP, coastal Gujarat and most of Maharashtra, have caused a food crisis of nightmarish proportions. Unseasonal rains wiped out the onion crop in Maharashtra and Karnataka. This shortfall, coupled with an unholy nexus of corrupt traders and middlemen, affected palates across the country, as prices of onions and other vegetables defied gravity...and logic. Floods in UP and West Bengal pulled down the overall kharif output, lowering foodgrain output in the kharif....Exports of non-basmati rice in 1998-99 were projected to touch 2.5 million tonnes, a growth of more than 40 per cent over the previous year. But while vegetable prices have increased by 114 per cent, the rate of inflation actually fell -- a trend that experts believe does not accurately reflect reality at the grassroots level, because it is based on the Wholesale Price Index, thought to be an inefficient indicator of inflation.

Floods in UP and West Bengal pulled down the overall kharif output, lowering foodgrain output in the kharif (summer) season by less than one per cent, to 102 million tonnes, according to the minister of state for agriculture. But reports say the damage by floods this year has probably been overstated, particularly with regard to paddy. In UP, for instance, central representatives found that only half the reported area, of one million hectares, was affected. And despite the setback to foodgrain production caused by recent floods, the government expects that agricultural output will grow by 4 per cent in 1998-99. Exports of non-basmati rice in 1998-99 are projected to touch 2.5 million tonnes, a growth of more than 40 per cent over the previous year.

But policy-makers and environmentalists can't afford to relax just yet. A conservative UNDP estimate pegs environmental damage in India at US$ 10 billion (Rs 42,000 crores) annually, accounting for 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product. According to a recent World Bank report, with India losing a whopping $ 13,758 million (about Rs 57,784 crores) every year on account of environmental degradation, overall annual expenses due to poor environmental conditions in the country stripped 6.41 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). It's time India realised that what's good for the environment could be good for the pocketbook.

 

Further reading......

Chronicle of disasters foretold...........By Priya Florence Shah
The hand of man............By Janet N Abramovitz and Seth Dunn
The future need not be gloomy...........
The ugly face of green justice...........By Rakesh Kapoor
The magic of slums............By Priya Florence Shah
Legalisation will give us dignity..........By Meena Menon
Making a difference.....By John Samuel
The key to transformation.......By Baiju Parthan
The Quilt.......By Ismat Chughtai (Translated by Syeda Hameed)